Wine production in France is projected to reach 39.3 million hectolitres this year, according to figures from Agreste, the statistics division of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food. This marks one of the lowest production years since World War II, with such small harvests being a rarity over the past century. The last time production fell this low was in 1957, a staggering 67 years ago.
Last year, France’s harvest fell within the five-year average of 44.5 to 46.1 million hectolitres, but the current estimate reflects a notable decline. While average production since 2000 has hovered around 40 to 50 million hectolitres, recent years have shown a downward trend, interrupted only by a few strong vintages.
What's Behind The Decline?
The reduction in wine production can largely be attributed to unfavorable weather conditions, which have impacted nearly every major wine region in France. Climate change has begun to significantly affect traditional wine-growing areas, leading to decreased yields and increased challenges for growers.
Notable Declines by Region:
- Jura, Charentes, Val de Loire, and Beaujolais-Bourgogne have been hit hardest, according to Agreste’s report.
- Jura is expected to see a staggering 71% drop in production due to severe frost and mildew.
- Champagne production is anticipated to be 16% lower due to a combination of spring frosts, hail, mildew, and scorching heat during the growing season.
National Overview
As of early September, Agreste’s estimated figure of 39.3 million hectolitres was revised down from earlier predictions. This reduction followed a better understanding of the effects of flowering in vineyards, especially in Charentes.
Though production could remain slightly higher than the frost-affected 2021 harvest, every category of wine will be impacted by this year’s downturn. Notably, wines intended for the production of eaux-de-vie (spirits) could see a 34% decline, following an exceptional 2023.
Certain vineyards have faced weather-related phenomena like coulure, where flowers and young berries drop off prematurely, and millerandage, leading to uneven berry sizes. Wet, cool weather during the flowering period, along with widespread mildew, has caused significant losses. In addition, episodes of frost and hailstorms have further reduced production volumes.
Regional Outlook
- Jura faces the most dramatic drop with a 71% decrease, following a stellar 2023 harvest.
- Champagne is projected to see a 16% decline, though it should still surpass the five-year average for the region.
- Burgundy and Beaujolais will see production fall by 25% compared to last year, driven by mildew and hail.
- Alsace is expected to drop 13% due to mildew and unfavorable flowering conditions.
- Loire Valley is looking at a 30% drop in production compared to 2023, mainly due to mildew and coulure following a cold and humid flowering period.
- Charentes could see a 35% reduction compared to last year’s record harvest, as poor flowering and wet conditions took their toll.
- Bordeaux is also set for a 10% decrease, impacted by a reduction in vineyard surface area as part of a plan to uproot 8,000 hectares, coupled with losses from mildew, hail, and poor flowering.
The South and Southeast
In South-West France, regions like Languedoc-Roussillon have also been affected by mildew, with significant rainfall at the beginning of summer limiting production potential. Additionally, drought conditions in Aude and Pyrénées-Orientales have further restricted yields, contributing to a projected 4% decrease in production compared to last year.
In Provence and the Drôme, late frost and millerandage have also caused a 12% drop in production compared to 2023. However, in Corsica, summer rainfall helped alleviate drought conditions, resulting in production being down only 5% from last year, while still remaining 9% above the five-year average.
A Complex Harvest Season
This year’s French wine harvest will be remembered for its challenges, from unpredictable weather to climate change impacts. Despite some regions managing to exceed their five-year averages, many others are struggling with dramatic declines. With global demand for fine French wine remaining strong, these reduced yields may lead to increased competition for top vintages, driving up prices and making this year’s production even more valuable.
