Matthew Knight
18/11/2025
Market Signals Say Yes
After two years of corrections, the fine wine market has finally shifted into gear. Over the past quarter, every major Liv-ex index has moved into positive territory and in the last month alone the Liv-ex 100 up 0.9%, the Liv-ex 1000 up 0.5%, Italy gaining 1.3% and California rising 1.0%. We’re no longer asking “how much further will prices fall?” but instead, “which wine’s are going to move the fastest in this recovery?
Across the autumn months, the markers that matter most to seasoned collectors and investors; liquidity indicators, trade volumes and buy-side engagement have quietly but steadily strengthened. And the clearest of these signals is one many overlook: bid:offer ratios.
Often overshadowed by index headlines, these ratios provide one of the most reliable forward-looking clues in the entire fine wine ecosystem. And right now, they are telling us something important.
On Liv-ex, the world’s largest professional wine marketplace, every wine has both a bid (current buy interest) and an offer (current sell interest). When you compare the total value of bids to the total value of offers, you get a ratio that reveals the market’s underlying mood.
In other words, the bid:offer ratio acts as the market’s pulse. Long before prices move, the ratio tells you whether demand is strengthening or softening.
The Drinks Business summary pointed out that the Liv-ex 100’s ratio fell well ahead of the 2022–2023 downturn, months before prices actually started sliding. At the time, many observers didn’t recognise the warning signs. Those watching the ratio, however, had already tightened their positions.
Fast forward to today, and the picture looks very different.
This autumn, the Liv-ex 100’s bid:offer ratio rose sharply:
That October reading is the strongest since November 2022, a period just before the broader market correction began to dig in. It is also comfortably above the long-term stability threshold of 0.5, a level historically associated with price consolidation rather than further decline.
Even more compelling, our November Market Update shows these rising ratios coincided with three consecutive months of positive movement across the main indices:
After more than 18 months of downward pressure, this sustained growth coupled with a near-1.0 bid:offer ratio feels less like noise and more like genuine momentum.
Liv-ex’s own statistical modelling gives us a useful benchmark. According to their analysis, each index has a “critical” ratio that signals stability or price appreciation two to three months into the future.
For the Liv-ex 100, the model identifies:
With the current reading at 0.70 (and improving), the model predicts only a very modest decline of –0.6% over the next two months, a negligible move when compared with the sharp swings we’ve seen since 2022.
The key point?
The severity of declines is fading dramatically, and the indicators that typically shift before prices do are turning positive.
Meanwhile, other regional indices are also showing healthier ratios. The Champagne 50, for example, is sitting at 0.51, a reading associated with flat or stable prices rather than further corrections.
No one is claiming the market has already turned the corner but it’s increasingly clear the ground is firming beneath our feet.
The latest Moncharm data adds further weight to this narrative. The August–October reporting period showed:
Confidence is returning and quickly. The speed at which the ratio climbed from 0.70 to 0.93 is particularly significant. For that kind of jump to occur, the buy side must be bidding broadly across multiple regions, price points, and vintages.
This has been especially visible in:
What we are witnessing is not regional noise but a multi-category improvement in sentiment.
The honest answer: Not immediately but the foundations are now in place. Here’s how we see the landscape:
Indices are gently rising, volatility is easing, and buyers are regaining confidence.
While not yet at the 1.0 inflection point, the market is heading in that direction.
Fewer forced sellers mean prices no longer face the downward drag seen in 2023–2024.
Prices haven’t yet responded to the increased demand. This gap rarely remains open for long.
Based on current momentum, we expect the following order:
The broad-based downturn is ending, but the upswing will be uneven favouring wines with strong brand equity, realistic pricing levels, and tight supply.
For clients seeking to enter the market or rebalance at corrected prices, the next three to six months may prove pivotal.
Our guidance is straightforward:
After a long period of turbulence, the market is finally giving us reasons to feel optimistic. Prices may not have lifted decisively yet but sentiment, liquidity, and buying behaviour have already turned the corner.
Historically, those shifts always happen before the price cycle begins its next ascent. The smart money is paying attention.
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27 Nov 2025
