Nathan Wilson
02/10/2025
The Data Points Towards Brighter Days Ahead
The fine wine market has been through a turbulent few years. Three years of price declines, punitive tariffs, and wavering buyer confidence have left many investors wondering whether the market would find its footing again. I attended a recent webinar hosted by Liv-ex, featuring insights from Henry Johnson and Sophia Gilmour, offered a far more positive outlook than we’ve heard in some time.
2025 has already been a story of shifting tides.
Q1 saw a period of tentative stabilisation, offering hope that the market had absorbed much of its correction.
Q2 quickly reversed that optimism as Trump’s tariff announcements pulled US buyers out of the market, leading to further declines.
Now, in Q3, we’re beginning to see renewed demand, particularly from Asia, alongside improving bid-offer ratios, a sign of returning buyer confidence.
In short: while challenges remain, the data points towards brighter days ahead.
One of the most encouraging takeaways from Sophia Gilmour’s presentation was the rise in the Liv-ex 100 bid:offer ratio to 0.7, its highest level since April 2023. For context, any figure above 0.6 has historically been a leading indicator of future gains.
What makes this significant is not only the ratio itself but also the narrowing spread between buyers and sellers. When buyers are willing to meet the market price, it reflects confidence that these wines will either deliver profits or become harder to source later. This shift suggests that we are witnessing the early stages of renewed alignment across the market.
Certain regions are emerging as standout opportunities. Champagne and Italy are showing particularly strong bid:offer signals, indicating fresh demand. Italy, with its Super Tuscans and iconic Barolo producers, has already demonstrated resilience through 2025. Champagne, meanwhile, continues to benefit from strong global consumption trends and brand recognition.
Interestingly, interest in California wines is also rising. Labels like Harlan and Opus One are attracting increased attention, possibly reflecting tariff-driven shifts in US buying patterns and diversification among Asian merchants.
Another important theme was seller fatigue. After three years of price declines, many collectors now prefer to hold, or even drink their wines rather than accept lower valuations. This natural reduction in supply is already helping to rebalance the market.
At the same time, Asian merchants are beginning to return with healthier stock levels, particularly in Hong Kong, where Burgundy and Californian Cabernets are experiencing renewed demand. This normalisation of stock after years of overhang could prove to be one of the most important drivers of stability.
To be clear, no one is expecting a sudden bull run. But prices have now fallen to levels that look historically attractive, and with demand strengthening across multiple regions, the foundations of recovery appear to be forming. As Sophia Gilmour noted: “When the worst has come to pass, the tariffs, the declines, the failed campaigns, the market prevails.”
At Moncharm, our own analysis aligns with these findings. We see this as an important moment for investors: entry points are favourable, demand indicators are improving, and some regions are beginning to break out. For long-term investors, this could be the ideal time to position ahead of the next cycle.
Ready to explore fine wine investment?
At Moncharm, we help clients navigate opportunities in the fine wine market with tailored strategies designed for long-term growth and diversification. Book a free consultation today
25 Sep 2025
